Expectancy Calculator
Measure your trading system's expected value per trade. Know if your strategy wins over time.
Expectancy
$0.00per trade
Breakeven Win Rate
40.0%Win Rate Edge
15.0%Annual Projection
$9,000.00(90% return)
100-Trade Equity Curve
Simulated account growth based on your expectancy
Expectancy Heatmap
Win Rate vs Average Win — at $100 avg loss
What Is Expectancy & Why It Matters
Expectancy is not 'how much will I make on my next trade.' It's 'what is the average result per trade after 1,000 repetitions.' A positive expectancy system makes money over time, even if individual trades lose.
The math is simple: (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). If the result is positive, your system has an edge. If negative, you're slowly going broke — even if some trades win big.
Professional traders think in expectancy, not single trade outcomes. A system with +$0.35 expectancy per trade over 20 trades/month adds +$84/year per $10,000. Scale that across multiple accounts and years, and the edge compounds.
What Is Expectancy & Why It Matters
+$37.50 vs $0 vs -$37.50 expectancy — 1,000 trades each
Three Systems, Three Outcomes
Based on 20 trades/month over 12 months, $10,000 account
Common Mistakes
#1: Win Rate Without Risk:Reward
What traders do
Focusing only on win rate without considering the average win vs average loss.
The consequence
A 60% win rate with 1:0.5 risk:reward is still negative expectancy. You can win 60% of the time and lose money overall.
What to do instead
Always evaluate win rate and risk:reward together. They are two sides of expectancy.
#2: Ignoring Trading Costs
What traders do
Using backtest expectancy without deducting commissions, spreads, and slippage.
The consequence
A backtest expectancy of $0.30 might be $0.10 after costs. Over 240 trades/year, that's the difference between +$72 and +$24 per $10,000.
What to do instead
Always subtract estimated costs from your expectancy before evaluating a system.
#3: Judging a System by One Trade
What traders do
After a losing streak, abandoning a positive expectancy system.
The consequence
A system with +$0.20 expectancy can easily have 10 consecutive losses. That's normal variance, not a broken system. Switching systems after every losing streak ensures you never capture the edge.
What to do instead
Trust the math, not your emotions. If the system has positive expectancy, a losing streak is just noise. Stick with it.
The Math Behind Expectancy
Step 1: Calculate expectancy per trade
E = (W × AvgWin) - ((1-W) × AvgLoss)
= (0.55 × $150) - (0.45 × $100)
= $82.50 - $45.00
= $37.50 per tradeStep 2: Calculate breakeven win rate
BE = AvgLoss / (AvgWin + AvgLoss)
= $100 / ($150 + $100)
= 40.0%Step 3: Calculate annual projection
Annual = E × Trades/Month × Months
= $37.50 × 20 × 12
= $9,000 (90% return on $10,000)Step 3: Calculate annual projection